patterns / refi_due

credit thesis

Refi due

an active charge aged 3.5–6 years and nothing new taken since — the facility is maturing and the refinance decision is ahead: 4.4× the refinance base rate (walk-forward, live base)

the signature — what the register must show
staff ≥5
an outstanding charge created 3.5–6 years ago
no new charge registered in the last 12 months

Why it matters

Secured facilities run on terms — five-year deals, fixed-rate windows, development loans. When the security on the register is 3.5–6 years old and nothing newer has been taken, the facility behind it is maturing and the company faces a refinance decision on a knowable clock. Walk-forward on the live base this cohort refinances at well above the base rate.

The play

For a lender or broker: arrive BEFORE the company goes to market — the incumbent renews by default only if nobody else calls.

How it's kept honest

The badge is recomputed nightly across the whole index, and re-evaluated live the moment a company files — so a match is always a statement about the current register, not a stale list. Like every signal the scout raises: a prompt to look closer, never a verdict.